So what is the outlook of the Euroleague teams ahead of the last 4 chaotic rounds?

A lot has changed since the last Power Ranking. Since then we had the Cup Break, financial issues, transfers, an International Window, a War and a derby of the eternal rivals in the Euroleague (so two wars). While this is not a Power Ranking, or any type of ranking for that matter, I think it is a good moment to reflect on the future aspirations of the Euroleague teams. 

The teams with no Chances:

At first, I would like to go over the teams which look like they have no chances of advancing to the post season. These are Anadolu Efes (dissapoinment of the season), ASVEL Villerbaune, Baskonia, Virtus Bologna, Paris, Partizan (despite their good current form) and Bayern Munich. Some of these teams were not expected to be in the fight, while others will look at their current situation with great despair. For the rest of the teams (other than Fenerbahce which has 3 games remaining), 4 finals are to be played, which shall determine the outcome of their season. 

AS Monaco - 10th / 19-15 / @Dubai, vs ASVEL, vs Barcelona, vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

Teams will be done in alphabetical order, so Monaco is first. The Monagasques were, as far as I am concerned, the team to beat along with Fenerbahce, until their economic issues arrived and tore the team apart. Fringe players like Makoundou and Michineuau left, leaving Monaco with just 11 players, internal issues rose and Spanoulis left the team. They lost 5 straight in Januart-February, but then salvaged their momentum with 3 straight wins, keeping them in the race for the Playoffs. Dubai away is not an easy fixture, however I'd argue than Monaco enter that game as favourites. Winning that would be key, as they have their last 3 games at home. ASVEL should be an easy win, while Barcelona and Hapoel will be very challenging (and will define a lot as they are very close in the standings). Winning 3/4 should be their aim, as it could see them end in the top 6 or at least in the 7-8 match. 

Crvena Zvezda - 9th / 19-15 / vs Partizan vs Paris, @ASVEL, @Real Madrid

The alphabetical order coincides with the top 10 order from lowest to highest, as Red Star has the same record as Monaco, sitting 1 spot higher in the standings. Now, the Serbs will try to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016, and to be fair, they could achieve that, as other than the Real Madrid game away, they do start as favourites in the other 3. The derby vs Partizan will be crucial for the destiny, as a loss could be very damaging to their morale. However, same as Monaco, with a 3/4 record they secure a play-in spot and could even aspire for a top 6 finish depending on other results.What I am sure of is that noboy will want to play a post season game vs Crvena Zvezda in Belgrade...

Dubai - 12th / 17-17 / vs Monaco,  @Zalgiris, vs Anadolu Efes, vs Valencia Basket

Had Dzanan Musa not missed most of the season, along with some other key injuries to players like Boogie Ellis, Nate Mason and especially Avramovic, Dubai would probably have an even greater chance to make the post season in their maiden Euroleague season. Now, it seems complicated, as they do need to win at least 3 of their last 4 matches, and hope that Monaco, Zvezda go 0/4 or 1/4. Even winning 4/4 does not guarantee much, as Barcelona, PAO, Zalgiris, Hapoel are on 20 wins. Their game vs Monaco will be crucial, as a Win could inspire them for a late run, while a loss will take them out of play-in contention. Afterwards, the trip to Kaunas and the Valencia game will be extremely hard, while a win vs Efes is expected. I think they should target that Kaunas game, as a win in Lithunia (if they manage to win Monaco and Efes) could allow them to enter the play-in. 

Armani Milan- 13th / 17-17 / @Paris,  @Valencia Basket, vs Bayern, @Olympiacos

Milan is the team which has the lesser chances of making the play-in. Not only are they 13th (their H2H with Dubai is lost), but they also have a tough schedule with 3 away games out of 4, with 2 of them (Valencia and Olympiacos) looking like mission impossible. Winning 3/4 and hoping that Monaco/Zvezda win just 1 game and Dubai wins 2/4 at most is the only thing they can hope for. Luckily for them, they have won the H2H vs Crvena Zvezda so in case of a draw with the Serbs they would overtake them. Paris away and Bayern home are must wins, and then they will have to get a very unlikely win away from Milan. 

 

FC Barcelona - 8th / 20-14 / @Zalgiris,  vs Panathinaikos, @Monaco, vs Bayern

Out of the 4 teams with a 20-14 record (Hapoel Tel Aviv, Zalgiris Kaunas, Panathinaikos, Barcelona), Barcelona is the lowest one in the standings. However, the balance of these teams could change a lot, as Barca will play against two of them in their last 4 games. Seeing the schedule, Barca has 3 very 50/50 games, where a win could cost blood sweat and tears, and an easy home fixture against Bayern, where a win is both expected and obligatory. The objective for the Blaugrana should be to enter the top 6, as their short roster could suffer from the extra games that the play-in requires and an early elimination could be on the cards. Their win against Crvena Zvezda last week means that a play-in spot is almost guaranteed, however the possible outcomes of their next games will be very hard to predict. Zalgiris in Kaunas is very challenging, PAO are finding some great form (yet Barcelona has not lost at the Palau against the Greens since 2013) and Monaco will have some very high stakes in their penultimate game no matter what. Xavi Pascual should be happy with a 3/4, and he has the advantage that the focus of Laporta and the Basketball section of Barcelona is placed upon next season. 

Fenerbahce - 1st / 23-12 / @Hapoel Tel Aviv,  vs Real Madrid, @ASVEL

Fenerbahce is the only team in the list (along with already eliminated Bayern Munich) that only has 3 games remaining. The loss vs the Bavarians yesterday will hurt, as the reigning champs are in crisis mode, having won only 1 out of their last 6 games. An easy (on paper) game vs Bayern would have given them some breathing room, as it is quite probable they go 1/3 in their last games. Fenerbahce had a bad start of the season, but around late November-December they turned their fortunes around and came into the last months of the competition as clear cut favourites, only to face a severe downturn in form during the month of March. Perhaps it is a trick to avoid the 1st place curse, however in truth it seems that Melli's injury in the last games has hurt Fener a lot. A bad combination of results could see them even lose homecourt advantage, so Jasikevicius will need to pull some magic out of his hat in order to not have his season derailed. Someone should have told Fener to be beware of the ides of March, as they may have killed their season. All remains to be seen in the two finals they have ahead of them. 

Hapoel - 5th / 20-11 / vs Panathinaikos, vs Fenerbahce, vs Olympiacos, @Maccabi, @Monaco

Hapoel Tel Aviv is another team that suffered from a key injury which made them drop several spots down from 1st place in the table, namely Bryant's prolonged absence. A roster restructure was made, with Caboclo leaving and forwards Kessler Edwards and Levi Randolph joining the team. In comparison to other teams they have 2 important advantages and 1 important disadvantage. The advantages being that they have 1 game in hand in comparison to the other teams (2 games more than Fener) and that so far they have the tie break over the other teams with 20 wins. On the other hand, they have the disadvantage of having an absolutely brutal schedule, as they have to face the 4 F4 teams of last year and their local derby Maccabi, with all of these teams having a lot to play for. They will needs to perform to the absolute best in this very demanding context and perhaps it should be the time where Micic shows why he was given that contract. They surely need his Efes version. 

Maccabi - 11th / 17-16 / vs Anadolu Efes, @Baskonia, @Paris, vs Hapoel, vs Virtus

Maccabi Tel Aviv also has the advantage of having 5 games remaining, along with a real chance of making the play-in, after a very inconsistent season, where perhaps they have exceeded the expectations placed upon them. Their schedule could be characterised as kind, as they play against 4 teams which are out of contention, along with the Israeli derby. Knowing the volatility of Maccabi, they could easily go 5-0 or 0-5, and it makes it hard for me to predict them winning 4/5, which in theory allows them to be in the play-in, despite their loss in the H2H against Red Star and Monaco. They will hope to have Lundberg back soon, as he had been a game changer for Kattash's team.  

Olympiacos - 2nd / 22-12 / vs ASVEL, vs Real Madrid, @Hapoel Tel Aviv, vs Armani Milan

It has been a very bumpy road for Olympiacos, yet they have managed to be in the second place, with a 1st place finish being quite probable. Monte Morris has underwhelmed me, Joseph does not seem to be elite and Jones will miss the rest of the regular season, so if they do not end the season well, they could even drop to the play-in (if they lose 3/4). In truth, the Reds have 2 very attainable games (Asvel and Milan) and two finals in between, which will determine if they get homecourt advantage or not. 

Panathinaikos - 7th/ 20-14 /  @Hapoel Tel Aviv, @Barcelona, @Valencia, vs Anadolu Efes

Panathinaikos seemed to be in the border of the abyss not that long ago, and to be fair to them, they are still in a very difficult position. However, 4 straight wins against Dubai, Crvena Zvezda, Zalgiris and Monaco gave life to the Greens, now with Hayes-Davis and Lessort (best frontcourt in Europe?), but without their perimeter glue guy, Jerian Grant. They will need to keep this excellent form to avoid the play-in and perhaps an even bigger scare if they finish 9th or 10th. They have 3 extremely difficult away games and a very easy home game to end the season. In a best case scenario for Ataman they could get homecourt advantage, and if they do so, they automatically become number 1 favourites in my books. Deja vu from 2020-21 and 2021-22 Anadolu Efes. 

Real Madrid - 3rd/ 22-12 /  @Baskonia, @Olympiacos, @Fenerbahce, vs Crvena Zvezda

Real Madrid has been another team riddled with inconsistencies, yet with a clear chance to finish 1st in the regular season. The schedule is tricky, as a trip to Baskonia is never a friendly experience (the Basques have also beaten Real in the Cup final) and the away games vs Olympiacos and Fenerbahce are a deadly experience to most, especially when these two teams will have a lot of stakes placed on these games. I cannot see Red Star winning at the Movistar Arena, yet they will also be a challenging rival which will most likely be in a life or death scenario. 

Valencia - 4th / 21-13 /  @Virtus Bologna, vs Armani Milan, vs Panathinaikos, @Dubai

That loss last week vs Partizan must hurt a lot, as Valencia needs to bring forth their best self in the last 4 games to secure homecourt advantage. Bologna, Milan should be beatable, which will give them breathing room to face Panathinaikos, in what will be one of the most important games of the Euroleague season, as it will have huge ramifications for everyone if the top 8. Valencia will hope that Dubai is out of contention by the last round, in order to collect an easy win away from the Roig Arena. I would have a lot of attention placed on Jean Montero, as if he manages to have some inspired performances we could see him earning some awards at the end of the season. Valencia will depend on him, and Grant's abscense could be key in their most challenging game. What is make or break for Valencia is the mental aspect of the game, as they are a team which are prone to collapse, as we saw in the Copa del Rey.  

 

Zalgiris - 6th/ 20-14 /  vs Barcelona, vs Dubai, @Partizan, vs Paris

Zalgiris have completed a very good season and they have it in their hands after an epic win vs Fenerbahce in Istanbul. The game vs Barcelona will feel like a final for both teams, while the rest of the schedule is relatively uncomplicated for the Lithuanians. Likewise with Valencia, they could face a Dubai with no real chances of making the post season, while Partizan (a tough opponent due to their form, but eliminated from contention) and Paris are must wins for Zalgiris. If they make the top 4, I think Francisco should be the MVP, and quite frankly, it looks like Zalgiris can achieve this. And I think nobody would like to face a trip to Kaunas in the playoffs, even moreso if the Lithunians have homecourt advantage.