So, can preseason favourites recover from disappointment against the surprise of the season? - Valencia vs Panathinaikos Playoffs Analysis

Panathinaikos vs Valencia is the most interesting series in these playoffs for me. On one hand, you have the biggest preseason favourite, Panathinaikos. They are a team which knows what it takes to get the title, with the biggest budget at their disposal and have the F4 at home. On the the other hand, Valencia is the perhaps the most interesting new project in the Euroleague, having a brand new arena, playing a very exciting brand of basketball and they have a higher budget and loftier ambitions then ever before. PAO was arguably the dissapointment of the season, ending 7th, while Valencia was the surprise of the season, ending 2nd. Both are very ambitious projects, but at the start of the season one would expect that their seeding would be the opposite.   

Is a Sloukas-less Panathinaikos an underdog?

It is weird to call a team with Nunn, Lessort, NHD, Hernangomez, Osman, Grant etc an underdog, yet it is also hard to give the favourite label to a team that finished 7th in the Regular Season against a 2nd seed, especially when Valencia managed to beat PAO 2/2 times this season. However, the news coming today, that report that Kostas Sloukas will miss the series, tip the scales - initially, and only on paper -  towards Valencia. Sloukas is the player who can give a clear mind to the PAO offense in the end of games, while also being a top tier halfcourt floor general in the Euroleague. And that is exactly what PAO needs the most, a tempo controlller, as Valencia is a team that just wants to unleash itself into the transition. Now,  PAO is a team that has so many weapons that discarding them from contention is outright ridiculous, however I cannot help myself but feel like Sloukas was going to be the most important player in this series, due to his halfcourt skills. 

With Sloukas out, it means that Nunn, Grant and TJ Shorts will have to "create" a Sloukas in a Moneyball sense. The player that will have the most added responsability is Shorts, who has gone from MVP contender last season to a player who has not felt comfortable at all with PAO. His play-in game vs Monaco was his best game in Athens, and he will have to carry over that form into the Valencia series. However, there are two factors that can severely limit his impact. First, Valencia is a team full of tall, physical or slashing guards, like Darius Thompson, Sergio De Larrea or Omari Moore, who can just dominate Shorts due to their difference in height and strength. Montero is also a bad matchup for Shorts, as the Dominican guard has proven to be an excellent scorer, so Ataman will have to use someone like Grant on him. It is not like Sloukas is a DPOY defender, but he is much taller and stronger than Shorts, so he is not a walking matchup problem against such a physical guard rotation. The other limitation brought forth in the Shorts v Sloukas comparison is that Shorts is a player who needs to have the ball in his hands and play at a fast pace. This will worsen the spacing and force PAO to either play at a fast pace that will be detrimental to the team (as Valencia wants exactly that) or to play at their normal pace, which will hurt Shorts. 

I expect Nunn and Osman to have many more responsabilities, both ball handling and playmaking wise. The obviously do not have the advanced playmaking insticts of Sloukas, but they are elite tier scorers and can be the focal point of the offense. Osman has not shown it in the Euroleague as much as he has done with Turkey or even the NBA, but he also has some playmaking abilities. Grant will fulfill his normal role with a fewer extra responsabilities, but I cannot see him taking part in any 3 guard lineup, and that is because I think PAO will need to become a much more post centric team that they ever were in the Ataman era. Lessort had many post ups in the title winning year, yet I think PAO will need to increase the volume on post up possessions to a higher degree than 2023-24, in order to control the pace. Again, I am focusing on the control of the pace, but also seeing that Sloukas will not be there, it is a good way to shift the offensive generation towards the frontcourt. Rogavopoulos, being a 3+D floor spacer will get some extra value from this, and of course Juancho Hernangomez will need to be able to space the floor. This gameplan seems tailores to NHD, who especially in lineups where he is a SF, can be a huge issue for the opposition's defensive plan. Of course, PAO cannot win this series if Shorts is not on, as it seems virtually impossible to get to the F4 with 2 guards (Nunn, Grant). The absence of Sloukas means that he will have a role that is more comfortable to him (the fit between those two is horrible, and Ataman's rotation means that they share the court a lot), however Sloukas is just in another tier in regards to these games.

Luckily for Ataman, Xavi Pascual has somewhat set the guideline to beat Valencia. The Taronjas are the team that shoot the 2nd most threes in the Euroleague, having shot 200 more than the 3rd ranked team, while they are also known, as mentioned so many times in this post, by their pace. This means that their games, other than exciting, are very high scoring. The "Big 3" of Lowering the pace, stopping the transition and contesting shots is what drives you to beat them. Real Madrid is also a team that has countered Valencia well, mostly due to Tavares. The common aspect of Barcelona's and Madrid's victory is that they stopped Valencia by doing those 3 elements excellently. Both teams managed to beat the Pedro Martinez team by dominating the rebounds, which is a crucial element, and then pressing the ball handler as to not get downhill. This is why I believe pairing Juancho and Hayes-Davis in the Forwards with Lessort/Faried as a Center and even Osman as a SG coud be a winning formula.

Why is Valencia not a clear favourite?

Valencia has played so well during this season, yet, the discourse in social media seems to have PAO as a more likely F4 candidate. It is truth that Valencia have some elements that can raise doubts. First, they lack experience at this level, and the playoffs are a completely different beast to the regular season. The lack of experience extends from the players, to the coaches to even the organizational culture of the whole team. Along with this, Valencia has shown to have some issues in high pressure games. Their Copa del Rey loss vs Real Madrid was an outright choke, and their semifinals vs Hapoel Tel Aviv in EuroCup, with a roster that is very similar to this one is not an encouraging sign. Lastly, OAKA is a much intimidating arena that the Roig Arena. Despite this, Valencia is an elite team, and I feel that many fans underrate them because they do not have tradition of other teams in the competition. They are a team that seek ball movement and spot up threes, which is exactly what PAO struggles at, an element that when combined with the fact that PAO just seemed to not be able to follow the Taronjas in their transitions in their game just a few weeks ago, means that Martinez has the formula to get the upper hand. 

Martinez has gone with a 12 man rotation in most games, with the 13th man being a defensive wing which once in a while enters the game roster. Montero, Moore, De Larrea, Thompson share on ball duties, with Badio being an off guard/combo. Taylor is an elite do it all SF, who can defend against pretty much all exterior threats, and is backed up by another 3+D wing, Joseph Puerto. Pradilla, Reuvers and Key are an amazing 3 man PF rotation, while their Center rotation comprised by Costello and Sako is a bit weaker than the other positions. 

While the players have clear roles, Martinez shuffles the deck a lot, using many different lineup combinations, going big or small, mixing starting and bench spots etc. I cannot see Xabi Lopez Arostegui (who has lost his place in Valencia after being an important player for many years) or Isaac Nogues, whose role and skillset is incredibly similar to Panos Kalaitzakis, getting any minutes. Ataman needs the Point of attack defender to a much higher degree than Martinez, however if the Spanish coach judges that he needs someone to just press the life out of Nunn, then he is a good tool to have in the roster, meaning that someone else will ge sacrificed (seems like it will be De Larrea). Yankuba Sima has been quite dissapointing, and I think Martinez preffers going small with Reuvers or Pradilla as a 5 rather than calling him up. Speaking of which, the PF duel is one of those battles than can win the war in the series. Pradilla is one of the most underrated players in the league, being an elite rebounder, developing creation skills and being more than an energy guy. Reuvers is an elite sniper from long range who has genuine face up skills and knows how and when to cut. He can score 14 points without you ever realizing. Braxton Key is perhaps the most underrated defender in the Euroleague, yet he is the weakest shooter (bar pure Center Neal Sako) in the roster, and PAO can gamble on his shots. However he can be a momentum changed due to his athleticisim, tougness, switchability and relentless energy, paired with some subtle offensive skills with the ball in hand.

However, what truly makes Valencia be Valencia is their backcourt. Montero has won the accolades, as he is the leader of this project. He attacks in the transition, but is also the player who will take the Iso when the clock is winding down. He is an elite shot creator, has amazing handles (ask Micic), while also having improved his playmaking skills in the latter half of the season, reaching a point where he is one of the most complete combo guards in the league. Kameron Taylor is the other player who can be thought of as a leader, being the player with the most minutes per game. He is one of the most versatile wings in the league, being an excellent rebounder, shooter, slasher and one of the best defensive players in his position. Omari Moore and Darius Thompson are also excellent slashers, while being quite tall for their position. In the case of Moore, his height and wingspan make him a very good defensive weapon, who excels due to his versatility. Darius Thompson is the purest PG (other than De Larrea), and can be a nuisance due to his vision, yet he has been quite inconsistent in the past years, and has not been able to replicate his Baskonia season. This could open some minutes for wonderkid Sergio De Larrea, a player who seems destined to be the heir of the Spanish PG tradition. Last, as previosuly mentioned, SF/SG Puerto brings good spot up shooting and defense, while Badio is a score first guard who can also defend and playmake. The depth and different profiles gathered from 1-3 gives Martinez such an interesting arsenal, and his mix and match nature in regards to rotations make it so hard to neutralize.  

Having so many good slashers, Martinez can really hurt PAO by using his 5 out spacing, having Costello, Reuvers and Pradilla in the frontcourt. The combination of this type of lineup and the transition means that Valencia could find many easy layups in the game. Martinez makes subs often, as to keep the energy level up, as this brand of basketball needs its players to be fresh. This is where depth comes in play, and is a legitimate X-factor. 

Predictions:

In my opinion, this is the most interesting series, which makes it hard for me to select a winner. The Sloukas injury makes me lean towards Valencia (55-45), but even with him healthy it would be very 50-50 for me. I predict the series to go a 5th game, that is for sure.

The truth is that PAO will find it easier to win a game in the Roig Arena, than Valencia to win at the OAKA. PAO knows that there is no chance to get to the F4 if they do not do the 2/2 in the OAKA, and they are a team with more clutch personalities. I could easily see them stealing one of the first two games and winning the series 3-1, or going 2-2 and getting the game 5. The thing that takes me back from choosing them is the fact that the in season series was a 2-0 win for Valencia and that Sloukas is KO.

As for the X-factors, I think Nigel Hayes-Davis and Juancho Hernangomez will define the floor and ceiling of PAO. I mentioned how much importance I gave to the rebounding battle, and that is where Juancho comes in, while he is also needed to hit his threes (PAO cannot afford to spare any type of offensive production) and defend against Valencia's weapons at PF (Pradilla, Reuvers). NHD on the other hand will also be a key aspect of PAO's defense, and as I said, I think PAO win this series if they lower tha pace and attack from the post, something which plays right into the hands of the marquee mid season signing.

All in all, and changing the note of the post, I have to say this is the series that, as a neutral has captivated me the most in a long time. The "reversed" nature of this series just makes it so appealing for me, as it genuinely feels like any result is possible. When you add the contrast in styles, their in season matchups, the coaching battle or just the sheer amount of great players on court, it means that this matchup, even when considering the Sloukas injury (which is a real shame, as he would have added another level of depth) is so, so exciting to watch.