So, can Monaco challenge Olympiacos? - Playoffs Analysis

A duel between Olympiacos and Monaco almost feels like a yearly tradition by now. After facing each other in Monaco's debut season in the Euroleague, in a memorable 5 game series won by Olympiacos, these two teams met in the F4 twice, in 2023 and in 2025. This year marks their 4th post season duel in just 5 years, with Olympiacos getting the upper hand twice (2022 playoffs, 2023 F4) and Monaco getting their revenge last season.  This matchup feels like a classic in the 2020s Euroleague, with all of their duels being hard fought battles, that gave memorable moments. This year however, something feels notoriously different... 

What can Monaco do to make the upset?

The truth is that Monaco is a whole different team when compared to the one we saw last year or even in the first half of the season, due to their economic problems. Manuchar Markoishvili has done a great job since he replaced Spanoulis, who was clearly not happy with Monaco's board, however the truth is that he does not have many tools at his disposal. Monaco can only try to strike Olympiacos with their plan A, as they simply do not have enough players to shift to a different approach. 

Since the start of the season, Monaco has offloaded Nick Calathes, David Michineau, Yohan Makoundou, had Spanoulis leave his post, was not able to register Cory Joseph, had internal issues in the dressing room and faced many injuries. This means that they have little to no depth, having 10 players available, 11 if Mirotic comes back (and they need him). Against Barca, the lack of depth showed, as their stamina can hardly last for 40 minutes, let alone a series. However, Monaco has a team that still has some great strengths and some very, very good weapons at their disposal. 

Monaco is quite simply, one of the most hard to beat teams in the Euroleague. Yes, even with 8, 9, 10 or 11 players. The combination of Diallo-Blossomgame in the forwards gives elite defense and athleticism, allowing them to strangle teams, while also being effective in PnR defence due their length. Vezenkov has suffered a lot against them. On Offense, Mike James leads by being almost an heliocentric figure. Everything goes through him, in what is his last season in the Principality. Strazel is a good partner, as he defends well, provides spacing and can free up James playmaking wise. Okobo functions as an off guard, but can take on ball responsabilities and is a bit of an X factor. Unless he plays great, Monaco's offense will be extremely stale. Theis and Hayes is a good Center rotation, with the first one being a great offensive option and the second one being an elite defender. Then, French guard-forwards Begarin and Tarpey have filled the rotation, providing a spark off the bench. The first one has more offensive talent and a bigger frame, while the latter had a great game vs Barca, being a spark plug full of energy. Monaco will surely need Mirotic (his post game and shooting can add an extra, extremely valuable dimension), with Nedovic already being fit. The Serbian SG could be of use for some instant offense off the bench, in what is his first Euroleague playoff appearance. 

If Monaco want to be a challenge for Olympiacos, and they can be that, they need to cut off the Olympiacos motion that created so many shots for Vezenkov, easy baskets originating from cuts by their wings and forwards, easy scores for their bigs and open threes. In short, they need to make Olympiacos be a ball screen team instead of a motion team. Dorsey and Fournier can score on you, however, we saw last year that it makes Olympiacos a much worse team, rendering many of their players useless. Walkup, Joseph, Morris or Ntilikina cannot command a game from the PG position, so having them taking more responsabilities than needed in the Bartzokas offense rather than being basically ball movers could greatly reduce the Red's effectiveness. In the 2025 semi final, Monaco did that very effectively. Olympiacos went from being a team characterized by its excellent ball movement to a team that registered just 10 assists against 13 turnovers. Having DPOY Alpha Diallo spearhead a defence which also has other elite defenders like Blossomgame, Hayes, an energy guy like Tarpey and a physical beast like Begarin (with 7 feet wingspan). The athleticism present is just off the charts. The track record is good for them, as Diallo had an excellent semi final last year, and Blossomgame knows how to deactivate the biggest weapon of the Olympiacos offense, called Sasha Vezenkov. 

Offensively, Monaco depends a lot on James, who is the engine of this team. Theis provides a good offensive anchor at Center, which is much needed. His inside-outside ability will be needed to provide interior scoring, in a team that is very dependant on their guard play (as good as Kevarrius Hayes is defensively, he lacks offensive talent). Okobo needs to be on, something which could be a challenge for his inconsistent nature. However, he is most likely the second best scorer after James, and he is tasked with playmaking duties, so if he crumbles, Monaco crumble. Strazel, Diallo and Blossomgane (the only PF available as of now) need to have a high % on their 3 point shots, and the first two have to be able to play both elite defense and give a reasonable good offensive output. Nedovic could be an end of the bench X-Factor, an instrument to change the pace of the game by having a hot or cold player that is able to give bursts of instant offense and shooting off the bench. Mirotic does not have a return date yet, but he is much needed. Monaco only have three players in the 4-5 (Blossomgame, Theis, Hayes), virtually no post options and they will have to rely on small ball. Thus, they need to play fast and be deadly in the transitions. 

How can Olympiacos prevent a repeat from last year?

First of all, Olympiacos needs to be an elite half court team. Monaco are an elite team in 2 crucial aspects. A) Transition B) Destroying offensive sets with their physicality. Obviously, point B leads to A, and if you do not believe me, watch the first half of the Play-in against Barcelona. Tarpey for example, the last player of the rotation, gave some extremely valuable minutes to Monaco based on this principle. Olympiacos needs to have ball safety as not to give liveball turnovers to Monaco, and of course, their offense needs to find the fluidity that allows Vezenkov to get open threes or easy cuts. 

In comparison to last year, where Olympiacos got choked out by Monaco's physicality, the Reds have some crucial advantages. First, while last year Monaco also employed just 9 players, now they have to maintain that physical standard for 3-5 games, not just 40 minutes. Secondly and most importantly, Olympiacos has some new weapons in their arsenal, that can be of great value in this particular match up.

On one hand, Dorsey (who had a very tough year last season, and was not included in the matchday squad in the semi-final) gives Olympiacos an extra on ball threat, whereas last F4 only Fournier could genuinely score efficiently in a 1v1 situation. Monaco is a team that wants you to play 1v1 (instead of the intricate sets that someone like Bartzokas or Xavi Pascual wants), so having another tool there is of great benefit. Another important dimension that was not present in 2024-25 is the fact that with Donta Hall and mid season signing Tyrique Jones, Olympiacos have 2 elite rim rollers. Moustapha Fall is a post up player, which got neutralized by Jaiteh last year, and Milutinov is an excellent short roll player, but he is not the above the rim threat that the two American Centers are. The vertical spacing these two provide (and passing in the case to T. Jones) mean that in a spread PnR situation, Olympiacos is a much bigger threat for any defense. Now, Bartzokas is not a coach who wants to live and die with Isolations and spread Pick and Rolls, however when you play against a team like Monaco, who can basically kill a big percentage of your sets, these are very important things to have. 

Another aspect that could define the series is post play. Olympiacos have 4 Centers, out of which Milutinov and Fall can be very effective in the post, while the other two, as mentioned, are more than anything PnR threats. It would be risky to have all 4 in a 12 man squad, but I think all 4 of them can hurt Monaco. Having explained why having great PnR Centers can be of great benefit, justifies having Hall as the third Center (assuming Milutinov and Jones are locked if healthy), however Fall and his post ups can also be very useful. Monaco is a team with only 2 Centers in their roster (not having insurance policy of a third Center or a combo big) and just 1 PF in their roster. Neither Hayes nor Theis are especially tall, and both Milutinov and Fall are way taller and way stronger. Putting them into 1v1 physical battles in the post and drawing fouls out of them is a luxury that they cannot afford. Their lack of depth in the bigs also mean that a lot of small ball will be played by Markoishvili, so giving minutes to 7 footers like Milutinov and Fall can exploit that. Additionally, post up possesions allow a team to control the pace, and with that Olympiacos can control the fastbreak. Fall may not play a single minute in the series, Milutinov however, coming of an excellent season, will for sure be important. His rebounding, sheer size, playmaking off the post or off the roll can be so dangerous against anyone, but against a team with little to no depth and size... he can be dominant.

Defensively, Olympiacos has to be careful in the transition, while a focus should be placed on trying to cut off Mike James from his teammates. Ward's long wingspan can be key in the disruption of passing lanes, and I expect him to play a lot in the series, as long as he hits his shots on offense. I wonder if Bartzokas will give an important role to Ntilikina, who is the best perimeter defender at his disposal. Despite of his offensive limitations, he could be crucial role player if he is appointed the task of defending James. Similarly, Walkup will need to give his usual defensive shirt while having a respectable percentage, else Olympiacos' offense could stall. 

The PG rotation is the biggest question mark surrounding the Piraeus team. Monte Morris has dissapointed me, but he is the best spot up shooter in that position (yet he has not made a 3 in the Euroleague thus far), so I think that if Monaco try to close down the paint, he will get minutes, in spite of his defensive limitations. Perhaps Cory Joseph, will prove to be the PG for Olympiacos in the series, against his "former" team, proving a much needed balance between offense and defense. In the end, playing with Mike James as the opposite number makes this position an important factor in the series, and Olympiacos does not have a clear hierarchy. If the PG position clicks for Bartzokas, then the series is over. 

 

Prediction:

Perhaps unexpectedly so, Monaco is 2-0 in their regular season series. In their first game, Monaco was able to beat Olympiacos in the Peace and Friendship stadium, with Diallo and James having stellar performances. Back then it seemed like Monaco was headed straight to the F4, whereas Olympiacos was struggling to find form. The second matchup was a surprise, as a 9 man Monaco team got a 1 point victory against a Vezenkovless Olympiacos. 

Thus, Monaco has shown that they do have the capabilities of beating Olympiacos, and the streakiness from 3 that the Reds have in some positions (PG, SF) means that I cannot see a sweep. I expect the series to be a 3-1, with at least 2 of the games played being a close affair, but with Olympiacos prevailing in a reasonably comfortable manner in the end. The fact that Olympiacos seems to have covered many of the deficiencies that allowed Monaco to defeat them last year and the fact that Monaco does not have the depth to either last an antire series or have meaningful alternate plans means that I expect this iteration of a duel which has shaped European basketball to not be as close as it perhaps deserves...