So, can Hapoel surpass Real Madrid's elite homecourt advantage? Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid Playoffs Analysis

The duel between Real Madrid and Hapoel presents the team with the most European success vs the team with the least Euroleague experience in the playoffs. However, the Israeli team has smartly acquired many assets that hold valuable basketball experiences, such as former MVP Vasilije Micic, MVP candidate Elijah Bryant or Dimitris Itoudis. Real Madrid is a team which also has a lot of pedigree in their roster, being in the middle of a rebuild but keeping many of its old leaders, and will surely want this to be the start of a new era for them, with Sergio Scariolo at the helm. With only 1 win separating them in the regular season, this series promises to be a close affair. 

Can Hapoel Tel Aviv overturn the season series?

All series have had a 2-0 sweep in the regular season, with Hapoel having lost twice vs Real Madrid this season. Contrary to Olympiacos and Fenerbahce, who has also endured 2-0 losses against their opponents, and like PAO, Hapoel does not have the luxury of homecourt advantage. Thus, Itoudis has to get creative if he wants to play his first F4 since the pandemic season. 

Hapoel has been a team that mostly fucntions as a guard team, completed by rim running and defensive forwards. Being a guard team, Itoudis will have to use his top tier guard rotation, lead by SG/SF Elijah Bryant to attack Real Madrid's drop coverage. The sheer quality of guards with good pull-up skills means that Hapoel could recreate what Ataman did with PAO and Efes against Real. Micic is a player who has taken down the Los Blancos several times in the post season. 

Real Madrid have a fairly good defense, that has however shown many signs of inconsistency during the season. A way to unlock it, other than attacking the drop coverage, is to pull away Edy Tavares from the paint. That is where Motley can be a great weapon, as he can be that stretch 5 made to hurt Tavares, or at least lure him outside. 

It is easy to forget that Hapoel were first for a big part of the season, and they finished 6th largely due to Bryant's injury. Yet, their potential playoff rotation comprised by Micic, Jones, Blakeney, Bryant, Malcom Edwards, Wainright, Oturu, Motley, Odiase is a scary sight. It is full of athleticism, has good shooting and playmaking, while also giving Itoudis the option to go big (with Bryant as a SG and 2 big forwards) or small (2 guards, Bryant, Malcom and a C). The team is also full of very good athletes, with Oturu being the one who had the best season. His duel vs Tavares will be one to watch. The end of the rotation will be comprised by 2 of the Madar, Levi Randolph or Ginat, all of which can be of use as depth in the guards, wings or bigs respectively, yet I think Itoudis will mostly play the 10 players listed above. Bryant is their leader, and the offensive engine of the team, while Micic needs to be his old self for Hapoel (and perhaps take over the leadership) to be a true contender. Jones has been in fine form lately, being a well rounded playmaker, Blakeney is the best shooter of the roster, having also elite scoring skills. Wainright, Edwards and Malcom are the glue guys and the defensive enforcers, with a minimal offensive roles and finally Oturu is the star interior player of Hapoel, with Motley and Odiase being decent backup Centers.

Will Real revalidate their homecourt strength when it matters?

When someone thinks about strong homecourts in European basketball, arenas in Greece, Serbia, Turkey might cross your mind. However, it is Real Madrid which has the best home record, having lost just 1 out of their 19 home games this season. The fact that the los Blancos enter the playoffs with a homecourt advantage is a huge factor at play, and perhaps what will define the series. The good thing for Hapoel is that Real Madrid struggles away from home, with a 6-13 record outside of the Movistar Arena. 

Going to the on court factors, Real Madrid has a very versatile offense, mainly due their talented roster. They are very dangerous in the Pick and Roll, especially when Campazzo is the handler, with Maledon being a more score first alternative. Players like Deck and Lyles provide mid post options, which allows Real to go mismatch hunting and of course Tavares is a hyper efficient finisher in the paint. Hezonja is another player with a great offensive game, being a multi level scorer. Scariolo has used his pieces in a very efective manner, having a realtively slowed paced but very efficient offense. They have the 3rd best eFG% and are second in Offensive Rating, only behind competition leaders Olympiacos.

Defensively, Real Madrid benefit from having the most dominant player in the last decade on this side of the floor, Edy Tavares. As such, Real Madrid have elite paint deterrence, rim protection and defensive rebounding, being the team which percentually grabs the most defensive rebounds. In contrast, Hapoel Tel Aviv is the team that grabs the least offensive rebounds. Real Madrid can create a huge advantage this way, as controlling the boards is such a crucial element in Playoff games where ensuring you the control of Pace of the game and winning the possession battle are very crucial elements. They also have an array of excellent individual defenders, like incredibly physical Okeke, Deck or Abalde. Campazzo is still a very good on ball presser and Garuba is a versatile switchable backup Center. As a result, Real Madrid have the 4th best Defensive Rating in the Euroleague, and they have players than match the physicality threat that Hapoel will want to impose.

Prediction 

The analysis made suggests that the series seems to tilt towards Real, however I think Hapoel has a significant chance of going to the F4. In truth, I believe that the series will be defined in 5 games, with Real Madrid getting the victory. I mostly arrive at that conclusion due to Real's homecourt dominance paired with both a defensive and offensive game with very little flaws, albeit they are not always very consistent. 

Hapoel's chances are very dependant on Micic. As good as Itoudis is a coach, Bryant as a "new" star or Oturu as a rim roller, what can ultimately push Hapoel over Scariolo's team is having Micic at an elite level. Hapoel has been a good, even great team in the Regular season, however to truly be championship contenders they need to a Micic+Bryant team, not a Bryant+Oturu+Role players team. The creation - scoring or playmaking - that Micic can give, if in form, would perhaps make Hapoel the best team in Europe. With Micic off form, Hapoel are a team that can make the F4, but Real are the matchup favourites.

For Real, the expected rebounding dominance is the X-Factor, as in the long run, it would be very hard for their opponents to beat them. Players wise, Trey Lyles is a very important figure in the series. He has been the team's highest scorer, but at the same time he suffers a lot defensively, and could be targetted in switches, off ball actions or 1v1 situations (although Hapoel do not have any good offensive 1v1 PFs to target him). He can be both the offensive and defensive barometer, so him not performing could threaten Real's possibilities. 

Concluding, after Valencia-Panathinaikos, I see this being the most interesting series, as I predict a 5 game series, with Real Madrid getting the ticket to the Athens Final 4. However, as any series predicted to reach the 5th game, I expect this to be quite close, and Itoudis can for sure use tricks to carry Hapoel to their first playoff series win.