So, can Fenerbahce overcome their March collapse against Zalgiris? - Fenerbahce vs Zalgiris Playoffs Analysis

Had it not been for Valencia, Zalgiris would be biggest surprise of the season, and had it not been for a terrible run in the last 10 games, Fenerbahce would be, by far, the biggest favourite. The drop in form means that a Zalgiris fan can feel much more hopeful about this series, although finishing 5th to play against what felt like the best team in Europe from November to March. It could be suggested that what lead to Fener's radical drop in form was the injury to Melli (21-9 record with him, 3-5 without him) and his return is the best news that Fener can receive. Jasikevicius, in what is his 2nd time facing Zalgiris in the playoffs, will try to get his team to perform like they did before that horrible run in March and April. Zalgiris will see once again the return of their prodigal son as a playoff opponent, in what is their best shot at a Final 4 since Jasikevicius took them there in 2018. 

What is the winning formula of Zalgiris? 

Zalgiris is the team with the smallest budget in the playoffs, something which means that there is not a lot of depth, with only 13 players having received meaningful minutes in the season. Along with Barcelona, they are the only team to not make a signing after the start of the season. Their small budget makes this duel seem like a losing battle, when considering that Fener are the reigning champions. However, the contrast in the form of these two teams (7-3 in their last games for Zalgiris, 3-7 for Fenerbahce) and the outright quality of the Lithuanian teams makes it a truly contested series, as their seeding initially suggests. The fact that Zalgiris have won both games in the regular season against the reigning champions means that someone could fairly argue that Zalgiris, even without homecourt, are the favourites. While I do not completely share that optimism in regards to the Lithuanian chances, I do see them putting up a fierce fight. 

The budget limitations when compared to other playoff teams means their roster is short, but every player brings forth value to the team. It is comprised by a very good backcourt trio of All-Euroleague First team member Francisco, Williams-Goss and Maodo Lo, with Dovydas Giedraitis getting the spare minutes, a wing-forward rotation comprised by Lithuanian role players like Ulanovas, Butkevicius, Sirvydis and Brazdeikis, Tubelis being the main PF, backed up by stretch big Dustin Sleva, with Wright being their starting center and Birutis being the back up 5. Rubstavicius is the 13th man, but I do not expect him to play any minutes. Coach Masiulis (who's seriously undertalked considering his achievements this season) does not shy away from giving minutes to the 12 players in their roster, where only Francisco, Goss, Tubelis and Wirght are "locks". Behind them, there are many role players that perform their role almost perfectly, adding many different dimensions. Giedraitis is a very good perimeter defender, Lo is a combo who can score in various ways and distribute the ball, Sirvydis is a good who has struggled this season, Ulanovas provides post creatin, Butkevicius is a hyper efficient 3+D forward, Brazdeikis has had a dissapointing progression yet can provide scoring, Dustin Sleva provides spacing behind Tubelis and Birutis gives size. 

Everyone has a role, which is what makes Zalgiris such a good team. It is not just Francisco and Wright doing flashy plays, it is a team that protects them as a membrane, allowing them to play in a context that suits them. Obviously, the team is dependant on that PG-C axis, whether that is with Francisco, Goss or even Lo with Wright or Tubelis (with Sleva as PF) being the Center. They use PnR a lot, whether as a spread action or adding a third player, performing a classic Spain PnR. Another great play used by Zalgiris entails having 2 screening options (combinations of Wright, Tubelis, Sleva, even Birutis at times) for their ball handler, with the screeners either popping or rolling, depending on what the defense gives. The use of two on ball screeners allows the handler to choose, and the defense must be very alert, with any small mistake allowing a high percentage shot for Zalgiris, whether that is a cut, a roll to the basket, a penetration or an open 3. Another great weapon in the playbook is to have sets that give Francisco enough space to attack his defender 1v1, which is the go to play in the end of games.

Their offense is not fast paced, and looks to carefully create advantageous situations for their stars, which excel at scoring the ball. As previously mentioned Masiulis has managed to tailor the offense to their roster's strengths (reducing the pace is a good example of this, as they are not a team with many elite athletes), ensuring he gets the most out of the roster by being an elite team at doing the fundamentals. The improvement of the players is perhaps a testament to how well his gameplan functions. Francisco is a player who had problems with his efficiency, but this year he is shooting 39.9% from three and 45% in overall FGs, while Moses Wright, even though he has a high volume of shots and does is not a purely paint scorer, is just shy of 60% on FGs. They also have so many players that are over or close to a 40% on 3s, with Tubelis (not a particularly good shooter overall), Ulanovas, Sleva, Lo being over 40%, Goss and Francisco being at 39.4% and 39.9% respectively. Then there is Butkevicius who has a 54% percentage and Sirvydis who is, in theory, their best shooter, is at a bad 30%. Even Wright is a player who can stretch and be a Pick and Pop threat. This just gives so much space for dribble penetration from their guards, or inside scoring opportunities for Wright and Tubelis. 

Can Fenerbahce switch back to their old form? 

Fenerbahce should feel like their series is 100% in their hands. Quite simply, if the replicate their form from November to early March, nobody can beat them in a 5 game series. I just cannot see it happening. We are talking about a dominant defense, with a decent enough offense lead by Talen Horton Tucker and Wade Baldwin, all masterfully coached by the best coach in Europe as of now in my opinion, Saras Jasikevicius. For a large part of the season, Fenerbahce was the best team in Europe because they would simply choke the life out of their opponent's offense with their sheer physicality and smart decision. Melli's injury showed that he was the anchor of this defensive gameplan, with Fenerbahce having a full collapse in the last 8 rounds. 

Going from 1st to 4th, with losses to Red Star, Olympiacos, Real Madrid, Maccabi, Bayern and Zalgiris, set the alarms off for Fener, with all of them other than the Real game, coming without Melli. The million dollar question is whether Fenerbahce will find their old form now that Melli is back and fully integrated, or if that decline came to stay. Quite simply, the response to this question will define who will win the series.

The calling card of Fener may be their defense, so stopping the Zalgiris Pick n' Roll/Ball Screen Offense and all of the actions that derive from is the a good start to win the series. This is, in my opinion, the floor of Fener's performance. What will determine the ceiling of this team is their offensive quality. Their offense has been very up and down this season, with them having a bad start, that was followed by a gradual improvement. Jasikevicius uses Baldwin as a bench option, starting Hall as PG, something that makes the team very gritty but lowers its offensive, as everything is too THT centric. De Colo has played only 10 regular season games, for Fener, I think he will be the X-Factor into unlocking the defensive gameplan of Zalgiris, as he adds a touch of magic that is unparrelled. 

Personally, I think that Fener has a great tool at its disposal, which is that they can adapt to a slow or fast pace. Colson's post ups, Biberovic offscreen plays or De Colo sets can slow down the pace, while Baldwin, Horton Tucker or Boston can inject pace and transition basketball if Jasikevicius deems that they can attack Zalgiris in that way. Fenerbahce is a much more athletic team that the Lithuanians, so this can work. Compare players like Baldwin, Tucker, Hall, Boston, Colson, Silva, Birch with their Zalgiris counterparts. Other than Moses Wright, Fener outmatches physically and athletically every single matchup.

Can Fenerbahce switch back to their old form? 

The Master vs Apprentice battle is a very interesting matchup, which is very dependant on the face that Fenerbahce will present. Personally, I think we are going to see something similar to what we saw in the Fenerbahce vs Paris series, albeit closer. This means a 3-1 victory for Fenerbahce, as I think Jasikevicius is a coach who is excellent at preparing series, while Masiulis, who is extremely talented, lacks experience. I also think that while Zalgiris is a versatile offense, and one of the best ones in the Euroleague, the Fener defense is just too hard to beat 3 times, especially without homecourt advantage. 

The series will be ultimately be an offense vs defense matchup, which to be fair, gives room for Zalgiris to make an upset. For the Turkish team, I think the X-Factors will be Devon Hall and De Colo on one hand, the ex-Milan man will be tasked with stopping Francisco while the French veteran will be needed to give a much needed offensive spark for a team that at times lacks offensive creativity. As for Zalgiris, I think the barometer will be Lo and Goss, who will be tasked with many Isolations, caused by the way I expect Fener to defend them. 

As such, and concluding, the series will be an interesting watch, which has a sense of intrigue because we do not know where Fenerbahce is standing as of now. Ultimately, that will not only define the series, but the whole of the Euroleague postseason.