So, how wide open are the Copa del Rey semi-finals?

 

For 4 teams remain, and all 4 of them compete in the Euroleague. Valencia, Real Madrid and Barcelona are 3rd, 4th and 5th respectively, while Baskonia is in a distant 18th place. The Copa del Rey semi-finals promise us a 2 great games and a very competitive final. In the way, Unicaja and Tenerife, the two most dominant BCL teams, a gritty UCAM Murcia and the ambitious Joventut Badalona have left the competition. Now, Real Madrid, Valencia, Baskonia and Barcelona will fight for the Cup. Each one of them has a real chance to be the winner, so let's review how they arrive. 

Valencia

Valencia, after a hard fought win vs a Joventut team lead by Cameron Hunt, Ricky Rubio or Ante Tomic, has to feel like this Copa del Rey can be theirs, albeit a lot of effort is needed. They have won this competition once, in 1998, and will look to repeat this feat in home soil this year. They have the benefit (and the pressure) of playing at home, in the brand new Roig Arena, and the disadvantage of playing a dominant Real Madrid team in the semis. 

Real Madrid

Real Madrid had the hardest opponent on paper, as Ibon Navarro has won 2 of the last 3 Cups, making Unicaja the current title holder. Despite this, out of all the quarter finals, Real Madrid had, by far, the most comfortable win. Scariolo's side showed a dominant two-way display, as they demolished Unicaja on offense and dominated them defensively, earning a 30 point victory as a result. 

Baskonia

Baskonia has 6 Copa Del Rey, with the last coming in 2009. They have underperfomed in the last years in this competition, missing out on qualification in 2025, 2024, 2022 or 2020. 2018, 2019 and 2023 saw Baskonia exit in the first round. A win vs Tenerife, lead by extraordinary performances from Trent Forrest and Eugene Omoruyi, broke this "curse", which will allow them to fight for a spot in the Final vs Barcelona, in a repeat of the 2021 semi-finals.

Barcelona

Barcelona surprised everyone yesterday, as Punter, Satorasnky and Vesely where made available to play vs UCAM Murcia. That probably saved Barca, as the game was extremely close up until the end of the 4th quarter, where Barca managed to build a small lead and get the ticket to the semi-finals. Punter lead the Blaugrana effort, and will look to get Barca its first title since the departure of Jasikevicius, Higgins, Mirotic etc. 

Does everyone have a real chance at the trophy?

For the first time in a while, I think every semifinalist has a very good chance. This is a rare occurence in European Basketball, where, in the top level, I'd say only the Euroleague F4 allows for such a wide open competition. Valencia is the team which is better qualified in Europe and the hosts, so they have a very good chance of beating Real Madrid in the semi-final, and then both Barcelona and Baskonia start out as outsiders in an hypothetical final. The Los Blancos are perhaps the favourites by a small margin, as they have dominated the ACB, have the largest budget and demolished the reigning champions in the quarter final, yet they have struggled away from home this season, and have not been consistent at all. Baskonia is perhaps the team with the least chances, however they have good momentum. They have lost 3/3 times against Barca this season, however all of the games have been close, and a 4/4 is statistically difficult to happen. For some reason, I can see them beating Barcelona and Valencia, but I would count them out vs Real Madrid. Last, Barcelona have their best chance at a title in a while. Pascual brings another aura in the Blaugrana bench, and he has everyone healthy, other than Nuñez. Far from being a steamroller, they have shown this season that have the ability to beat everyone, albeit they are not in the best form recently. The return of Punter, Vesley and Satoransky can change that. 

Predictions wise, I see Valencia and Real Madrid as the two favourites. Real gives me better vibes, but Valencia has the homecourt advantage. Barcelona can beat both of them in the Final, although I do not know if they have it in them to win 3 hard fought matches in a row. Baskonia starts as an outsider, however they are very capable of beating Barca. I see Real Madrid-Valencia as 50/50 as it gets, meanwhile I give a slight advantage to Barca in the other semi final (60-40).