And then there were 4... - Fenerbahce vs Olympiacos preview

After the longest season in the Euroleague, we have reached its final week. 4 teams will contest the much awaited Final 4 in Athens, with a Greek-Turkish derby one side and a Spanish civil war on the other. As with any F4, it feels that while there are some teams that have the "favourite" label (Olympiacos, maybe Fenerbahce) any team can have a shot at the title. The pressure of keeping the crown on Fener's side vs the anxiousness that Olympiacos must feel at this opportunity of finally ending their continental drought in their enemy's backyard makes this semifinal have an extra amount of stakes. 

Olympiacos vs Fenerbahce

Olympiacos and Fenerbahce were in my opinion the two best team this year in Europe. Quite honestly, while I would not put any money on this, I believe the winner of this matchup will be the one to lift the title. After all, it is the team with the best Offensive rating (Olympiacos with 123.4) against the team with the best Defensive rating (111.9).

This matchup is as 50-50 as it gets, however I am leaning towards Olympiacos. How so? Well, I believe if the game becomes a high scoring one, then the Reds are through, as Fener does not have enough firepower to be able to themselves alive in this type of duel. On the contrary, a grueling low scoring affair is definetely what Jasikevicius wants, however I do predict that Olympiacos have more capabilites of winning in that kind of match (they possess the second best defense DRTG wise). The advantage that Fener has is that even with Joseph, Olympiacos do not have a top tier Point Guard, which can allow Fenerbahce to deploy their choking defense effectively. Due to this, Dorsey and Fournier need to be very effective in 1v1 offense against switches, but also be able to involucrate the other pieces of the Olympiacos offense (something that did not happen last year vs Monaco). The focus will also be on Vezenkov's performance, after an underwhelming semifinal last year, who needs to be play like he did back in 2023. I also think that Bartzokas should use his cards in the Center position wisely. Milutinov can offer post playmaking and be a nuisance against a switch defense due to his ability in the post, passing out of double teams and offenisve rebounding. Control of the boards, and thus the possession battle, is such a great tool to have in a F4 setting, and the Serbian provides that. Hall has been in a better form than Jones, however I think that the latter has a higher ceiling. Maybe it's not the time to test that, but I think that Jones should at least be given some minutes in the first half. There is some debate over who should be the last player in the 12 man list of the reds, with McKissic and Ntilikina disputing that spot, wisely assuming that Morris, Larentzakis, Netzipoglou and Fall will not get a call up. It's an interesting choice, as both of them can be of great use. Ward and Papanikoalou cover the SF spot pretty well, and Fournier is going to get minutes there, so McKissic does not have much space, however his scoring ability can be a valuable tool against such a great team defense. He is an offensive choice, that could allow coach Bartzokas to have an extra weapon in his armory. On the other hand, Ntilikina is a defensive option, and a cover to a position with lesser depth, as only Walkup and Joseph can truly play there. He is not a great shooter (to be fair neither is McKissic), yet he provides great perimeter defense, which could be used against Horton-Tucker, Baldwin or De Colo. Moreso than any rotation decision, what will truly determine the ceiling of Olympiacos in the mental aspect, as this has been the factor that has stopped from reaching the Euroleague title in this decade.

As far as Fenerbahce is concerned, their chances rely on the combination between physicality and defense, which quite frankly, is not a bad combination to rely on. With Melli healthy, Fenerbahce has presented an impressive defensive gameplan, which has managed to shut down so many potent offenses. Their physicality and smarts make a formidable combination, which allowed them to be 1st in the standings for a long time, before a late season collapse. Their offense however, is not particularly good. There is a lot of reliance in isolations, mainly by Talen Horton-Tucker and Baldwin (in a 6 man role), which have the fastests first steps in Europe. Jasikevicius starts the game with non PG Devon Hall as a 1, in order to give grit and physicality, staggering Baldwin with THT by having the ex-Maccabi man coming off the bench. Biberovic is another offensive resource, mostly as an offscreen shooter (and he is very good at that), while Colson provides some post up offense, with reliable spot up shooting, as does Jantunen. These two however did not receive much playing time in the playoffs, with Saras opting towards lineups with both Melli and Khem Birch. Having this core of Baldwin-Hall-THT-Biberovic-Melli-Birch with Jantunen and Colson as auxiliary options make it so Saras has a 8 man rotation, with the ability to introduce players as X-Factors. Brandon Boston is an athletic wing who can give you a transition threat, and had great games vs Olympiacos and Real Madrid in the regular season, but has had a minimal season in the playoffs. Chris Silva can be frontcourt depth, however he has not impressed in his debut season. Zagars, Bitim, Bacot and Birsen are not expected to have a role. One player however that I think can truly win Fener games in this stretch of the season is Nando de Colo, in what is the last dance of his legendary career. He is by far the purest playmaker in the squad, being able to give creativity to a team that lacks that. He is also, still at this age, a great scorer, who can break down an opponent in a much more technical way that someone like THT and is much more of a shooting threat than Baldwin, the afore mention ex Lakers player or Devon Hall.  

Concluding, I think this duel is a very interesting one, as not only do I believe that these have not only been the best teams in the season, but that the contrast in their styles will be a delight to watch. Both coaches are masterminds, trying to get their second title with two radical approaches. Having the team oriented Olympiacos offense against the physical defensive juggernaut of Fenerbahce could feel like an unstoppable force meeting an inmovable object, and that truly is what makes the Euroleague, the KO duels in the F4 and basketball in general such an interesting sport.