So, does the Nigel Hayes-Davis signing change the power balance of the Euroleague?

Just 2 days ago, it seemed like Nigel Hayes-Davis would be either returning to Fenerbahce, or be a new addition to Hapoel Tel Aviv, in their bid to make the F4 in their first Euroleague season. Reports said that he had rejected an offer by PAO. Just yesterday, a report from Gazzetta.gr said that PAO made an important counteroffer, and that the player would be joining the Greens. Today, we can confidently say that NHD will be soon a resident of the OAKA, as the club has announced this absolutely massive transfer. Both his wage (10M for 2.5 years) and his status (Best player of the Championship team) make him one of the biggest signings in recent times, so it definetely merits an analisis.

Two Way Player - Two Way Impact

The impact of NHD comes from both sides of the floor, which is great news for PAO, a team that struggled a lot defensively, and will also benefit from his offensive versatility. Let's see some of the important attributes NHD brings forth: A) Defensive prowess B) Switchability C) Stretch profile D) Post offense E) Dribble drive and closeout offense F) Strength and size. 

The combination of all of those make him an extremely versatile player who can affect both sides of the floor and be the cornerstone of any Euroleague team (even a championship winning team as it was proven last year. In addition, I'd say he is a player who can both raise the floor of a team (their minimum level of performance) and their ceiling. Let's see how his attributes directly impact PAO, in comparison to the listed attributes 

A) PAO has struggled defensively all throughout the season, NHD is one of the best defenders of the league, and can guard 1-5 basically. He can not change PAO's defensive performance singlehandedly, but he is a very good tool for Ataman.

B) As mentioned, he can switch very effectively (in a hypothetical game vs Hapoel I can see him guarding both Micic or Bryant and Oturu or Motley) which allows him to play both Forward positions and even some small ball 5. 

C) Ataman's system required big men that can shoot, both Juancho Hernangomez and Dinos Mitoglou are having bad shooting % this season from long range, and Hayes is a 39% career shooter in the Euroleague. In some seasons he would even shoot more 3s than 2s, showing he can be a stretch 4. Not only is he a capable scorer from 3 (where he can serve as a Catch and Shoot floor stretcher, but can also take shots from the dribble, pick and pop or set plays than allow him to get open).

D) He is also a very capable post scorer. Playing him as a SF, with Juancho, Mitoglou or Samodurov as a PF can allow him to be devastating vs smaller SFs, while he is a very good scorer in the post vs PFs as well. This allows PAO to have a new type of offensive action, as they have not been able to have a good post offense this season.

E) He is also a player who can attack from closeouts and have some wing iso possessions. This, along with his Catch and Shoot ability is very useful to have in a team filled with quality guards. He can also attack with a drive any slower Forwards that get to close to him in the perimeter.

F) He adds size at the 3 and a much stronger profile compared to Osman or Rogavopoulos. He is also fairly strong in comparison to the other PFs of the league. 

The fit with the existing roster:

This is an inmediate question mark. I think this means we will automatically see less 3 guard lineups, something that Ataman likes a lot, so no more Grant at the 3. I think that this will have as a domino effect that TJ Shorts will get less playing time. Rogavopoulos will get less time, while Kalaitzakis and Grigonis will most likely dissappear from the rotation. Mitoglou and Samodurov will also get an important decrease in their minutes per game. Having him as a 3, paired with Hernangomez will definetely enhance PAO's defense, as the added size in the Forwards will help PAO's undersized Centers (Holmes and Faried). In contrast, if he plays at the 4 with Osman or Rogavopoulos at the 3, it will allow PAO to have many players (4 or even 5) who can create their own offense (in the came of Osman) or be offensive threats (in the case of Rogavopoulos due to this shooting). A lineup that contains him, Grant and Juancho also has the potential to be a defensive juggernaut, and even though I find it unlikely, I think having Kalaitzakis as a presser and him in the baseline along with Grant or Juancho and a Center, can be a great defensive lineup.

What is his European journey?

Nigel Hayes-Davis is a player who has had very different experiences in Europe, playing for 4 clubs so far (PAO will be his 5th), with a varying degree of success. In Galatasaray he was the undisputed number 1, playing the most minutes, scoring the most points and averaging the most PIR. Clearly a leader, only for him to be a role player in Zalgiris the next two seasons, serving mostly as a stretch 4, with little to no offensive responsability. He would shoot more 3s than 2s during his stint in Lithuania, where he improved a lot in his second season. This lead him to a reunion with Saras Jasikevicius in Barcelona, where he quite frankly had the worst season in his career. He would start for a lot of games as a SF (where he would spent most of his time, as Mirotic and Smits would play the PF), but his minutes became more and more limited as the season went on. He mostly served as a defensive stopper or a post option, while he was extremely inefficient from 3. After a F4 dissapointment and a loss in the ACB, he would be released by the Catalans in the summer. Itoudis gave him a contract and a big role in Fenerbahce, in a move which would change the destiny of NHD, Fenerbahce and European basketball, as he quickly became one of the best Forwards in the Euroleague, showing a much improved self when compared to his first 3 season in the best European basketball competition. His second season with Fener, another Saras for the ex Wisconsin Badger, would be another improvement for him, especailly offensively. He would score 50 against Alba Berlin, breaking the modern Euroleague record and he overall looked like a viable #1 option on offense (like he was in Galatasaray) rather than a floor spacer with an occasional closeout or post possession. Last year, his third and final season with Fener would be another massive jump for him, as he would cement himself as a top 5 player in Europe. Another statistical jump, a bigger usage rate, and of course a championship, F4 MVP and a move to the NBA would make this a dream situation for NHD. Sadly for him, his NBA dream seems to be over, and with that, Europe came calling again.

What does this mean for PAO?

We all know that PAO has a special kind of pressure this year. The F4 is at home, which is something that always affects. This signing is the definition of an all in move. On paper, the club has given everything in order to not only make the F4, but to win it at home. Now, the ball is in the hands of Ataman and the players. It really feels like it is all or nothing.